16 Feb Not The (Fake) 9 O’Clock News

Growing up I can remember watching Not The 9 O’Clock news with Mel Smith, Griff Rhys-Jones, Rowan Atkinson & Pamela Anderson. Then along came after it the fantastic Alas Smith & Jones, Blackadder & finally Mr. Bean.

Not the 9 O’Clock news & Alas Smith & Jones satirized popular news of the day & poked fun at politics, religion, music, sport, media & in fact anything that you can think of. In watching some of those programs you could almost imagine them replacing some of the politicians or pundits that we see on TV today. Just check out their work on Ronny Raygun at the following link: –

Not The 9 O’Clock News – Reagan

My dearly departed Father always told me that “never believe anything you hear & only half of what you see”. When it came to media reports I think his 50% discount weighting verged closer to 100%. Now we live in a 24 hour news/media cycle with not only newspapers, free to air TV, but Pay TV, Social media (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) & even journalists becoming cross over media darlings able to put their 20 cents worth in wherever they like. We have newspapers with a noticeable right wing bent (The Australian) & noticeable left wing bent (The Age), just as an example.

Just look at all the most important events that the experts, media & pundits alike got completely wrong in 2016: –

• Brexit
• The European Union breaking up in 2016 because of Brexit
• Trump
• The financial world coming to an end because of either Brexit, or Trump

No wonder we now have a new lexicon to add to our language in “Fake News” or “Alternative Facts”. So let’s look at some real facts as presently presented to us: –

• The NAB Business Survey released this week suggest that business conditions and confidence increased in January to the highest levels not seen since before the GFC in Australia
• Westpac Consumer Sentiment also increased this month, showing more consumers are more positive on the Australian economy
• The Unemployment rate fell slightly to 5.7% and yes in South Australia our rate actually fell too.
• The new Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe believes that the Australian economy will grow at 3% pa (compared to an average of 27 economists in a Fairfax survey which have estimated growth as being 2.4% pa)
• We are only part way through the company profit reporting season, but > 60% of companies to date (compared to a long term average of 44%) have reported earnings that have exceeded general analyst expectations (as reported by Shane Oliver AMP Chief Economist)
• The European Commission has upgraded economic growth forecast for the UK and also forecast for the 1st time in a decade that each EU member will also have growing economies (yep that means Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy, etc. as well as Germany, France & the other “Big Boys”)
• China continues to display solid economic growth of > 6.5% pa

The China story is important to the world but also us here in Australia. China Southern Airlines now flies direct into Adelaide 3 times per week from Guangzhou. Over time you can expect to see more Chinese tourists on our streets pouring their hard earned yuan into our coffers (Hooray !!!). Australian companies that are exposed to China directly have shown in their just released profit results this week (Treasury Wines) and those indirectly (Sydney Airport, Star Casino) that they continue to show extremely good levels of profits and growth in profits.

Finally I might add that we may have seen the bottom of the interest rate cycle both here in Australia and overseas. That isn’t to say that interest rates are going to be increasing back to 5% – 6% levels seen as the “norm” here in Australia previously, but it is not inconceivable that the RBA increases rates later in 2017 or in the first part of 2018 (maybe an increase of 0.25% – 0.50%, But Who Really Knows…??? I can get 20 Economist predictions and 19 will probably be wrong !!!). What I can say with authority though is that interest rates have however been held at extremely low levels both here & internationally over the past 3 – 5 years. A general increase in interest rates should be seen by everyone as being a positive as it would give weight to increasing levels of economic growth, company profits, reflation & over time stock prices & dividends i.e. your general financial well being

So salutations from your Audacious Reporter !!!