25 Jul Madman Across The Water

Madman Across The Water

The title of the 1st LP “Madman Across The Water” recorded by Elton John in part with future members of his classic band (Davey Johnstone, Dee Murray & Nigel Olson) just sums up the USA completely. America whilst a land of opportunity is really a land of complete contrast and full of contradictions.

I can see very well
There’s a boat on the reef with a broken back
And I can see it very well
There’s a joke and I know it very well
It’s one of those that I told you long ago
Take my word I’m a madman don’t you know.

Could he actually do it ? Trump started as 1 of 17 people running for the Republican Presidential nominee at odds of 100/1. He has found a way to connect to the disaffected people in a way that Cruz, Rubio, Ben Carson & the well connected Jeb Bush couldn’t. Trump has been lampooned by all comers over the past 12 months, written off by all the pundits but has continued to come up Trumps (yes pun definitely intended) time & time again.

Being a fan of the great series House Of Cards starring Kevin Spacey & Robin Wright I have found it highly entertaining watching the Republican National Conference (RNC) last week. As Kevin Spacey said in the series “Politics is show business so let’s give them a show !!!” – and he wasn’t wrong there, Cecille B DeMille would have been proud of this production. We have people as diverse as Chachi from Happy Days (Chachi !!!) to PayPal Billionaire Peter Thiel making impassioned speeches supporting Trump. We have had Governor Chris Christie prosecute Hilary Clinton (to shouts of lock her up) & Ben Carson (who led the Republican Primaries for awhile) refer to her as basically Lucifer reincarnated !!!

Trump has put himself front & centre as the “Law & Order” candidate. He highlighted attacks on police, terrorist attacks overseas, radical Islam,etc. As we have seen last week with Sonia Kruger these issues resonate with a growing part of Western population as people want to feel safe where they live, work & play. Worldwide candidates in the mould of Trump are springing up everywhere (Marine Le Pen in France as a notable one). You can expect that for every act of senseless violence between now & November that Trump will continue to hammer home this message time & time again (as iI have just finished writing this another atrocity has unfortunately occurred in a Floridian Nightclub).

Making America great again and rebuilding business and creating jobs is the theme that has run time and time again from the Trump camp. Trump has at the RNC been promoted as a fighter, a doer, someone who will fight for the underprivileged, someone who supports & promotes female causes (affordable childcare & equal pay for equal work). Trump is promoting law & order, safety for all Americans, championing rights for women, Latinos & African-Americans. A lot of talking about WHAT he is going to do, but no talk about HOW he is going to do it (I.e. No Plan At This Stage, just Trump grandstanding saying that he will fix it).

Once a fool had a good part in the play
If it’s so would I still be here today
It’s quite peculiar in a funny sort of way
They think it’s very funny everything I say
Get a load of him, he’s so insane
You better get your coat dear
It looks like rain.

Now of course we can add to this protectionist policies (putting tariffs on Chinese & Mexican imports) building a wall and having the Mexicans pay for it (LOL). Getting rid of or amending free trade deals so they benefit the USA (this is taken straight out of Bernie Sanders playbook – a real left winger if I have ever seen one) and bringing jobs especially manufacturing jobs back to the USA. These actions may be taken to split the democratic vote with Trump representing the right wing trying to entice hard left wingers to vote for him !!!

Levon, Levon liked his money – He made a lot they say.

Trumps positive policies include cutting corporate tax rates (currently 35%) & Small Business tax rates back to 15% & eliminating deductions. Studies have shown that this could add 0.75% – 1.0% pa in GDP which will add $Bn in income and create thousands of jobs. Offsetting this would however be losses of revenue through protectionist policies.

What is however true about US finances is that American national debt has effectively doubled over Obama’s reign to almost $19 Trn. So a future US President will face the same problem that our Liberal Government is going to face of ways in which to reduce spending/deficits &/or increase taxes to somehow reduce the national debt – whilst having a protagonist senate to deal with.

This week we have the Democratic Convention, so I look forward to more fun & games. What we do know is that both Trump (64%) & Hilary (56%) are 2 of the most unpopular candidates EVER to run for US President. The winner could possibly be even called the “Stephen Bradbury” of politics, so look forward to another 3 months of skating between now & early November.

In speaking to people in the USA in the last week I asked them all Trump or Hilary. I can tell you now that most didn’t really want to vote for either & when I was wearing my Alice Cooper – Elected T-Shirt he was seemingly offering them all a more palatable choice.

He couldn’t do it….. Could he …???